The national elections set for November 30, 2025, in Honduras are happening with Venezuela closely observing, as its influence is noticeable in both the political domain and the management of the electoral procedure. The connection between the LIBRE party and Nicolás Maduro’s administration, along with the participation of the company Smartmatic in election technology, have caused worries in different sectors regarding the fairness and authenticity of the elections.
Connections in ideology between LIBRE and Chavismo
The LIBRE party, which supports the presidential candidacy of Rixi Moncada, maintains a political and ideological closeness to Venezuelan Chavismo. Analysts point out that this affinity is not limited to ideological sympathy, but also translates into political strategies inspired by Venezuela, including institutional control and concentration of power. This model is causing concern among social and political sectors that question the possible replication of authoritarian tactics in Honduras.
Smartmatic and electoral technology
The hiring of Smartmatic as the provider of biometric technology for the electoral process has been the subject of debate. The company faced questions in Venezuela over irregularities in the transmission and counting of votes during elections previously noted for their lack of transparency. Its participation in Honduras raises concerns about possible failures that could affect public confidence in the preliminary results and in the electoral system in general.
Internal division and the potential for conflict
The domestic political environment shows significant polarization, with groups split between advocating for the continuation of the LIBRE initiative and those worried about the weakening of democratic structures. This split elevates the likelihood of tensions after the election, large-scale protests, and instances of unrest if the outcomes are viewed as tampered with. The involvement of security forces and the influence over electoral entities are elements that exacerbate doubts regarding the progression of the process.
Effects on geopolitical and regional dynamics
Venezuela’s influence in Honduras also has a regional component. The consolidation of Maduro’s government strengthens allied leftist governments in Latin America, including Honduras, while changes in Venezuela could weaken this political trend. In this sense, the Honduran elections are part of a broader scenario, where the results in Tegucigalpa have repercussions on the political orientation of the region.
Forecast for November 30
The intersection of ideological connections to Chavismo, the involvement of Smartmatic, and internal division positions Venezuela as an indirect yet significant player in the Honduran electoral context. The key issues revolve around ensuring transparency and legitimacy during the elections, alongside addressing potential social tensions due to perceived manipulation. As the election day nears, Honduras faces the challenge of preserving both institutional integrity and public trust in a situation characterized by regional observation and scrutiny from international participants.
