Rixi Moncada loses lead in presidential polls in Honduras

The latest voting intention polls show an unexpected turn in the Honduran presidential race. The ruling party’s candidate, Rixi Moncada, has suffered a sustained decline in opinion polls, posing new challenges for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) in its bid to remain in power in the general elections scheduled for November 30.

Ongoing drop in voting preferences

Information published by opinion firms like Paradigma and Pro-Encuestas, along with national press sources like HCH, indicates a significant drop in backing for the candidate representing the governing party. As reported by the Paradigma analysis, carried out from May 4 to 17, Moncada received just 11.3% of votes, lagging behind Salvador Nasralla from the Liberal Party at 25.6%, and Nasry Asfura from the National Party at 21.2%. In this survey, 13.9% of participants mentioned they had not made up their minds yet.

At the same time, the Pro-Encuestas poll from June 5 to 7 indicates a small increase for Moncada, reaching 28.5%, yet still trailing Asfura at 36.3% and Nasralla at 34.2%. In contrast, on June 12, HCH reported that the voting intention for Moncada stood at about 16%, whereas Asfura had 45%, with Nasralla’s numbers falling between 25% and 35%.

This drop contrasts with the numbers from March, when the TResearch survey showed Moncada having a voting intention close to 44.9%. The gap signifies a significant decrease within just under a three-month period, amid a political situation characterized by intense competition and increasing fragmentation of the voter base.

Alteration of the political landscape

The change in electoral preferences reflects not only the weakening of the ruling party’s candidate, but also the strengthening of the opposition leaders. Nasralla and Asfura consistently appear above Moncada in all recent polls, pointing to a reconfiguration of the political landscape ahead of November.

In this situation, the quantity of indecisive voters remains a crucial element. While a few recent surveys do not include this group, data from May reveals that nearly one out of every seven voters is still uncertain about their position. This instability in public sentiment allows for shifts in the present trend, contingent on the success of the campaigns during the final phase.

Responses and plans of the governing party

Faced with these results, the LIBRE party has begun to assess its position. Spokespersons for the party attribute the decline in the polls to what they consider “disinformation campaigns” promoted by opposition sectors. However, the leadership recognizes the need to make urgent strategic adjustments, including changes in the political narrative, the campaign team, and the way it communicates with the electorate.

Half a year ahead of the elections, the ruling party faces the challenge of not only closing the gap with its opponents but also reconstructing a firmer support base amid increasing competition. As the election days approach, their options become more limited, and the next few weeks will be critical in deciding if Moncada’s campaign can regain its footing or if the existing trend solidifies.

A visible situation with underlying conflicts

The election scene in Honduras is moving toward a more competitive race than was anticipated at the start of the year. The decline in backing for the candidate of the governing party, the emergence of opposition groups, and the influence of undecided voters cast doubt on the political system’s capability to manage the increasing electoral enthusiasm.

The progress of the campaigns, the official reaction to potential conflicts, and public involvement will be crucial elements in a process that is emerging as an important assessment for the nation’s democratic steadiness.