Electoral scenario in Honduras with Nasralla in first place

Various public opinion polls place Salvador Nasralla at the forefront of voting intentions for the 2025 general elections, in a scenario marked by disputes between the country’s main political forces.

Five months ahead of the general elections in Honduras, the latest survey results reveal a competitive landscape. Salvador Nasralla, the Liberal Party’s present candidate, is at the forefront in two significant May studies. This information indicates a period of crucial political choices, where potential opposition coalitions and the solidification of candidacies might play a crucial role in shaping the electoral proceedings.

Surveys show Nasralla leading

A research done in May 2025 by the American company Expedition Strategies shows Salvador Nasralla leading with 25.2% of preferences, followed by Nasry Asfura from the National Party with 21.4%, and Rixi Moncada from the current LIBRE party with 16%. Moreover, Nasralla emerges as the preferred choice to spearhead a potential opposition coalition, gaining 37% backing in that context.

A second poll, conducted by the Paradigma polling firm between May 4 and 17, presents similar results. In this poll, Nasralla reaches 25.6%, followed again by Asfura with 21.2% and Moncada with 11.3%. The coincidence between the two polls reinforces the perception that Nasralla’s leadership remains stable at this point in the electoral calendar.

Discrepancies between studies and controversy over use of data

Even though similarities exist between these two analyses, there isn’t unanimous agreement on the published results. A survey conducted by TResearch International, made public in March 2025, presents a distinct arrangement: Rixi Moncada was in first place with 44.9%, Nasralla held 27.5%, and Asfura had 23.4%. The variations in outcomes are linked to the study’s timing and the methodology applied, though no additional information has been provided.

In the midst of these disparities, a dispute emerged regarding the distribution of a purported survey linked to TResearch, which allegedly ranked Nasralla at the top. The organization openly refuted the legitimacy of this document, stating it was not part of any of their research and condemning the unauthorized employment of their name and logo. This situation has sparked renewed discussions on the manipulation of surveys and their influence on public perception, particularly in a highly politically polarized environment.

Open scenario and expectations for party definitions

Elections are set for November 2025, and the political scene in Honduras is evolving with active competition among three principal groups: the current government led by LIBRE, the National Party, and the Liberal Party. Nasralla, previously a contender for the presidency and now representing a segment of the Liberal Party, is appearing again as a key figure in the pre-election landscape.

The chance of forming an opposition coalition is still being debated, especially among groups looking to join forces against the current party’s sustained rule. The backing Nasralla is getting as a possible head of an alliance indicates that his influence might exceed his solo candidacy, contingent on the choices made by the party in the upcoming months.

A voting procedure characterized by institutional doubt

The spread of conflicting surveys and the incorrect use of statistical data highlight the difficulties encountered by the Honduran electoral process concerning openness and trustworthiness. In addition, there are rising tensions among the key political figures and the public’s expectations about a competition that, currently, seems to lack a definitive majority.

The development of the contenders, the establishment of partnerships, and the stance of established groups in relation to emerging coalitions will shape the political atmosphere in the latter part of the year. In this scenario, the part played by electoral bodies and civil organizations in monitoring and ensuring a lawful process will be vital to maintaining the country’s democratic equilibrium.