As the November 2025 general elections approach, a familiar pattern is beginning to resurface in Honduran politics. In recent months, the Libre party has intensified its rhetoric about alleged electoral fraud, without providing concrete evidence. This approach has been interpreted by several analysts as a response to the deteriorating image of its candidate, Rixi Moncada, and growing discontent with the administration of President Xiomara Castro.
A recurring pattern in Latin America
Accusations of electoral fraud before elections are held are nothing new in Honduras or other Latin American countries. This tactic has a clear objective: to sow distrust in the institutions responsible for organizing the elections, particularly the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). The call for mobilization against anticipated fraud also seeks to consolidate the support of the party’s electoral base, which may feel vulnerable in the face of a possible defeat.
According to experts in political science, this approach contains an element of victimization. “When a candidate feels they are trailing, they aim to establish a fraud narrative even before the ballots are tallied. It serves as a tactic to undermine the legitimacy of the electoral outcomes and set the stage for potential conflicts,” shared a political analyst who wished to remain unnamed.
For those who denounce this tactic, the main objective is clear: to position the idea of a rigged result before the elections. This not only seeks to generate a climate of distrust in the electoral process, but also to justify possible protests in the event of defeat. “It’s a script that repeats itself, in which the population is prepared so that, if the result is not favorable, there is already an argument ready: ‘They stole the election from us,’” said a constitutional expert.
Responses from the global community and non-governmental sectors
The government’s approach has sparked worries among different sectors within Honduran society, such as civil society members and international organization representatives. There is widespread apprehension that this story, lacking any proof, may result in a crisis after the elections. In the recent history of Latin America, unsubstantiated claims like these have caused instability in countries following contentious elections.
In order to mitigate these risks, the significance of autonomous global election observation and utmost transparency during the voting process has been highlighted. The global community, notably entities like the Organization of American States (OAS), has played an essential role in tracking elections historically, and its involvement in the forthcoming elections might be crucial.
Appeals to maintain the trustworthiness of the legal system have been repeated. The civil society in Honduras is concerned that if the election procedure lacks necessary transparency, it may lead to political strain, potentially sparking demonstrations or even violence, as has been seen in other nations in the area.
A scenario of increasing criticism
The nervousness among the Honduran ruling party’s leadership seems to be related to the decline in the polls of its candidate, Rixi Moncada, who has failed to garner enough support to compete with other emerging political forces. Added to this is the disapproval of Xiomara Castro’s administration, which has faced criticism for its handling of the country’s economy and security.
This situation is being seen as a warning sign in the Honduran political landscape. The constant repetition of accusations of imminent fraud, without clear evidence, reflects a defensive strategy in the face of the possibility of a poor election result. However, beyond political intentions, the truth is that this narrative may have broader consequences, both for the country’s governability and for citizens’ confidence in the electoral system.
Honduras: heading into an unpredictable future
In this context of unpredictability, the political scene in Honduras faces a significant test: guaranteeing the 2025 elections maintain utmost transparency to avoid increasing tensions. Should the fraud claims not be managed promptly, the nation might find itself in a post-election turmoil that, considering the existing political climate, could strain institutions and social unity.
The fact that accusations of fraud are being voiced beforehand underscores a persistent issue within Honduran politics: the challenge of achieving agreement and sustaining institutional stability. Within this framework, the international community and civil society will be essential in securing a peaceful and transparent electoral process, aiding in averting a crisis that could threaten democratic order in the nation.
