Over four months ahead of the elections set for November 30, the ruling party in Honduras is experiencing an increase in public disapproval. The Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party, governing since 2022, is being criticized by political opponents, businesses, and civil society groups. These entities accuse the party of attempting to manipulate the electoral process to maintain power despite a significant decline in polling figures.
Decrease in polling preferences and erosion of trust
Recent polls, such as those conducted by Pro Encuestas and TResearch, indicate that Rixi Moncada’s presidential candidacy has experienced a sustained decline. Initially positioned as the favorite, Moncada has been overtaken in the polls by nationalist Tito Asfura and liberal Salvador Nasralla, relegating her to third place.
Analysts attribute this decline to a combination of factors: allegations of corruption in public administration, internal divisions within the ruling party, poor economic performance, and a growing public perception of opacity in government management. The erosion of popular support has coincided with a hardening of political rhetoric from the executive branch and signs of institutional tension that have set off alarm bells in various sectors.
Suspicions about the electoral process and institutional control
One major point of contention revolves around the governing party’s decision to block manual vote verification, a usual procedure in past elections used to corroborate the accuracy of digital results. Critics from the opposition and independent groups caution that removing this step might open the door to irregularities and complicate both domestic and international oversight.
Additionally, there have been accounts of efforts meant to obstruct the implementation of the Preliminary Election Results Transmission System (TREP), which is crucial for ensuring transparency in the vote counting process. Tensions have escalated within the National Electoral Council (CNE), with council members like Cosette López and Ana Paola Hall reporting pressure and endeavors to impede their activities.
Business associations and members of the opposition view these actions as a component of an approach to solidify institutional command over the election process, restrict external supervision, and ensure the ruling party flexibility in case of an electoral loss.
Accusations of ideological alignments and a climate of confrontation
The holding in Tegucigalpa of a session of the São Paulo Forum, with the participation of delegations from left-wing governments in the region, reignited the debate on the international alliances of the LIBRE party. Critical voices pointed out that these links with the Venezuela-Cuba-Nicaragua axis could be aimed at replicating models of governance that prioritize the concentration of power and restrict spaces for democratic participation.
At the same time, opponents such as the former president of the Honduran Council of Private Enterprise (COHEP), Eduardo Facussé, have warned of the possible implementation of a “Venezuela Plan” aimed at generating institutional instability, induced protests, and administrative blockades that would hinder a transition of government.
Based on these claims, factions linked to the party in power have engaged in disruptive activities in essential venues like the National Congress and the CNE, a pattern that might undermine the electoral process’s credibility and heighten political division in the nation.
An unpredictable situation before a critical election
As the political scene in Honduras becomes more divided and the governing party sees a decline in public support, the nation moves toward elections characterized by a lack of trust, institutional strains, and doubts about democratic procedures.
Various civil society organizations, business sectors, and political leaders have reiterated the need for robust international observation and mechanisms to safeguard the transparency and legitimacy of the electoral process.
The current situation exposes not only the fragility of the democratic consensus in the country, but also the difficulty of channeling political competition within stable institutional margins, in a context of growing citizen disaffection and distrust of state institutions.
